EU PVSEC Programme Online
EU PVSEC 2020, 7 - 11 September 2020
Presentation: 5BO.7.3 Ensemble Based 15 Days Ahead Aggregated Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting at Macro Area Level
Type: Oral
Date: Tuesday, 8th September 2020
10:30 - 12:00
Author(s): M. Moschella, E. Crisostomi, M. Tucci, A. Betti, L. Gigoni, C. Lanzetta
Presenter / Speaker: M. Moschella, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Event: Conference Conference
Session: 5BO.7 Forecasting Solar Radiation and PV Power
Type(s) of Access:  Conference Registration
Topic: 5. 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting
Summary / Abstract: The increasing penetration level of PV (Photovoltaic) energy generation is demanding for accurate and reliable forecasting methodologies to support power grid operations, such as electricity market clearing, maintenance planning or unit commitment. For this purpose, many models have been employed, both physical and, more recently, machine learning and data-driven methods. In this paper, we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation in a territory of size greater than 100.000 km2, with a future horizon up to 15 days ahead. Real data, related to bidding zones in Italy, are used to validate the proposed forecasting algorithm on a test set of several months.